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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-60 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-5 Tage | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |