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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLowLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min1-4 Wochen5-20 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-81-63-202-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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