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Criterion
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitysame
LowLowLowLow
Timedifferent
10-20 min daily20–45 min30-60 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1Small cross-functional group2-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
Root causeQualityOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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