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| Criterion |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 1-3 h | 15-45 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | 3-8 | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | FailureResilienceRisk | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |