What needs to be finished first
A written definition of the current markets and products, including revenue and margin shares, is available so the four fields can be assigned clearly.
Quantitative growth goals for the next 24-36 months (revenue, margin, market entry) are approved and communicated.
What needs to be ready before start
2x2 matrix template (X: existing/new products, Y: existing/new markets); current product-market combinations with revenue; growth goals; resource overview (available capital, hiring plan); risk grid.
One facilitator with strategy experience; three to six participants from Strategy, Product, Sales, Marketing, and Finance; one decider with budget responsibility; one scribe.
Revenue share per product-market combination; margin by combination; current market-share trends; cash position and investment budget; known regulatory hurdles in target markets.
3-4 h workshop, plus 1 day of data research
Put the 2x2 matrix on the wall. Name the quadrants: market penetration, market development, product development, diversification. Prepare a sticky-note lane per quadrant, plus a risk scale (1 low to 5 high). Make the growth goal visible in the header.
The one question this method answers
Which mix of market penetration, market development, product development, and diversification fits the growth target and risk capacity?
Marker: Phase
| Step | Duration | Action | Hint |
|---|---|---|---|
1Phase 1: Capture the current situation | 20 min | Write down existing product-market combinations with revenue, margin, and growth rate. Make the growth target and available budget visible. | If the current situation fills two A4 pages, the business is too complex for a single Ansoff session. Analyze each business unit separately. |
2Phase 2: Options per quadrant | 60 min | Collect 3-5 concrete growth options per quadrant. Market penetration: more share in the existing market. Market development: new geography or segment. Product development: new features or lines. Diversification: new market with a new product. | Diversification options are often overvalued. Risk is highest here, and the hit rate is empirically 10-20%. Require an explicit justification for each diversification option. |
3Phase 3: Risk and investment needs | 45 min | Estimate risk (1-5) and investment need (k EUR and FTE quarters) per option. Document expected revenue contribution and time to revenue per option. | Market penetration usually has risk 1-2, diversification 4-5. If the team rates diversification at 2, it lacks experience with real market entries. |
4Phase 4: Portfolio selection | 45 min | Assemble an option set that reaches the growth target and stays within the risk budget. Rule of thumb: 60-70% in market penetration/product development, 20-30% market development, 0-15% diversification. | If the set contains 80% diversification, the growth plan is a bet, not a plan. Check the distribution explicitly instead of letting it stay implicit. |
5Phase 5: Roadmap and triggers | 30 min | Set the sequence: Which option starts when, with which milestone. Define stop triggers per option (for example, no pilot revenue in 6 months). | Without stop triggers, weak options keep running for three years because nobody stops them. Triggers matter just as much as start decisions. |
What comes out at the end
Structured document with an Ansoff matrix diagram, option list per quadrant with risk, investment need and time to revenue, selected portfolio with rationale, and roadmap with start and stop triggers.
One version per strategy cycle (typically yearly) with date and decider. Quarterly updates with trigger status, without overwriting the previous version.
Compact working template for Ansoff Matrix with context, input, output artifacts, and next step.
| Element | Description | Rating | Evidence | Owner | Next step |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |||||
| 2 | |||||
| 3 |
What consequence follows from the matrix?
Concrete filled scenario, fictional example
Concrete filled scenario, fictional example
Growth target 2026-2027: ARR from EUR 18m to EUR 32m, EBITDA margin not below 15%.
Market penetration (risk budget 50%):
Product development (risk budget 20%):
Market development (risk budget 20%):
Diversification (risk budget 10%):
Stop trigger pilot energy: No referenceable pilot customer by 31.12.2026. Stop trigger Switzerland: No closed-won above EUR 100k ARR in the first 9 months.
Recognize symptoms and steer against them
More than 30% of growth is supposed to come from diversification, and the risk budget does not fit the cash position.
Check the allocation against empirical hit rates. Reduce the diversification share or isolate it as an R&D spike, not as planned revenue.
Existing markets are defined so loosely that every new market appears as market penetration.
Draw the market boundaries sharply (geography, industry, buyer segment). If it is a new region or a new industry, it is market development with higher risk.
Options are started, but nobody defines the abort criterion.
Define two measurable triggers per option: one for escalation, one for abort. Review triggers quarterly, not only at year end.
Expected revenue contributions add up to 150% of the growth target because every owner sells their program well.
Apply a confidence factor of 0.5-0.9 per option. Recalculate the sum with confidence. If it over-delivers, deprioritize options instead of overbooking.
Several options need the same engineers or sales people, and the conflict only appears during execution.
List FTE needs per option explicitly. Make resource load visible in the table. Prioritize or defer when there is double booking.
Market entry or a new product is started solely based on the matrix, without validation in the market.
Run a discovery spike before each option: interviews, market data, pilot. The matrix is an allocation grid, not a substitute for validation.
Done signals checkable in under a minute
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