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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile WSJF |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When many tasks compete for the same capacity, it orders work by economic impact. It makes time lost, benefit, and effort comparable together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-10 | 1-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Ranked Backlog, Cost-of-Delay Assumptions | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanEconomicsSequencePrioritization | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |