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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-3 h | 5-20 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 | 3-20 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | FailureResilienceRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |