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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 5-20 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 4-10 | 3-20 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery |