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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 5-20 min | 20–45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-20 | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | FailureResilienceRisk |