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| Criterion |  Operations Visual Management |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | With high tempo and many parallel topics, the method makes status, deviations, and priorities visible at a glance. It reduces search effort and prevents what matters from getting lost in daily work. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | Ongoing | 60-120 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-20 | 3-10 | 1-8 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Visual Board, Status Indicators, Exception Cues | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | SignalsOperationsVisual management | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow |