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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Strategy KPI Tree |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When metrics across the organization drift apart, it arranges drivers and effects under one shared logic. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a KPI tree and owner list. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 90-180 min initial, dann laufend | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | KPI Tree, Owner List | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | MetricsStrategyAlignmentMeasurement | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |