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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations After-Action Review |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | After missions or project phases with unclear outcomes, the method makes visible what actually happened and what can be learned from it. It separates course, effect, and causes so experience turns into solid improvement. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 20-45 min | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Lessons learned, Action items, Event summary | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LearningOperationsImprovement | FlowMeasurementConstraints | ForecastingFlowDelivery |