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| Criterion |  Delivery Shape Up |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down | 1-3 h | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 2-4 pro Pitch | 4-10 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | PlanningDeliveryAutonomy | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery |