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| Criterion |  Delivery Shape Up |  Agile NoEstimates |  Agile Ideal Days |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down | laufend | 15-60 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 2-4 pro Pitch | 2-12 | 2-9 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | PlanningDeliveryAutonomy | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationEffortAgile | ForecastingFlowDelivery |