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Criterion
Paper illustration of Shape Up with its method-specific working model.
Delivery
Shape Up
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowLow
Timedifferent
6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down5-20 min20–45 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-4 pro Pitch3-20Small cross-functional group2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomesEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
PlanningDeliveryAutonomy
EstimationEffortRisk
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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