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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationEffortRisk |