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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 1-3 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |