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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 5-20 min | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-20 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | EstimationEffortRisk | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics |