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Criterion
Paper illustration for PDCA Cycle.
Operations
PDCA Cycle
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHighMedium
Timedifferent
1 h bis mehrere Wochen5-20 min30-90 min Setup, danach laufend45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-83-201-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard ChangeEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsForecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
Continuous improvementLeanExperiments
EstimationEffortRisk
ForecastingFlowDelivery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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