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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Shape Up |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 2-4 pro Pitch | 4-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | PlanningDeliveryAutonomy | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingFlowDelivery |