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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Shape Up |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 2-4 pro Pitch | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | PlanningDeliveryAutonomy | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |