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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  UX Research HEART Framework |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Helps clarify observations, needs, and patterns in concrete terms. It groups observations into patterns, questions, and decisions. The result is captured as a HEART-GSM table and dashboard. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 120 min initial, dann laufend | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 3-6 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | HEART-GSM Table, Dashboard | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | MetricsUX researchMeasurementSatisfaction | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |