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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-3 h | 20–45 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | FlowMeasurementConstraints | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationEffortRisk |