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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile WSJF |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When many tasks compete for the same capacity, it orders work by economic impact. It makes time lost, benefit, and effort comparable together. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | 1-3 h | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 4-10 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Ranked Backlog, Cost-of-Delay Assumptions | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanEconomicsSequencePrioritization | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow |