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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile WSJF |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When many tasks compete for the same capacity, it orders work by economic impact. It makes time lost, benefit, and effort comparable together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 1-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Ranked Backlog, Cost-of-Delay Assumptions | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanEconomicsSequencePrioritization | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |