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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile WSJF |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When many tasks compete for the same capacity, it orders work by economic impact. It makes time lost, benefit, and effort comparable together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | 10-30 min je Item | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 1-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Ranked Backlog, Cost-of-Delay Assumptions | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanEconomicsSequencePrioritization | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow |