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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile WSJF |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When many tasks compete for the same capacity, it orders work by economic impact. It makes time lost, benefit, and effort comparable together. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Ranked Backlog, Cost-of-Delay Assumptions | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanEconomicsSequencePrioritization | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |