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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Operations Theory of Constraints |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | For a system that does not get faster despite effort, the method directs attention to the bottleneck. It concentrates improvement on the point that actually limits throughput. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 2-4 h Analyse, laufend | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Constraint Map, Improvement Plan, Flow Metrics | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | OperationsConstraintsFlowImprovement | FlowMeasurementConstraints |