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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Theory of Constraints |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a system that does not get faster despite effort, the method directs attention to the bottleneck. It concentrates improvement on the point that actually limits throughput. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 2-4 h Analyse, laufend | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Constraint Map, Improvement Plan, Flow Metrics | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | OperationsConstraintsFlowImprovement | FlowMeasurementConstraints |