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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Shape Up |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | laufend | 6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 2-4 pro Pitch | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow | PlanningDeliveryAutonomy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |