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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Growth Hooked Model |  Agile NoEstimates |  Growth North Star Metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When product teams track many metrics, the view of the actual customer outcome easily gets lost. A North Star Metric bundles growth, usage, and value contribution into one signal that makes the system's direction visible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Multiple workshops over several weeks | laufend | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-12 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Hooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics check | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | North Star metric, Input metric tree, Measurement cadence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | GrowthBehaviorRetention | EstimationForecastingFlow | GrowthMetricsAlignmentRetention |