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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  UX Research HEART Framework |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Helps clarify observations, needs, and patterns in concrete terms. It groups observations into patterns, questions, and decisions. The result is captured as a HEART-GSM table and dashboard. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 120 min initial, dann laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-6 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | HEART-GSM Table, Dashboard | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | MetricsUX researchMeasurementSatisfaction | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |