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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Growth Flywheel |  Agile NoEstimates |  Growth North Star Metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When product teams track many metrics, the view of the actual customer outcome easily gets lost. A North Star Metric bundles growth, usage, and value contribution into one signal that makes the system's direction visible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 60-120 min | laufend | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | North Star metric, Input metric tree, Measurement cadence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | GrowthRetentionConversion | EstimationForecastingFlow | GrowthMetricsAlignmentRetention |