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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 5-20 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationEffortRisk | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | Root causeSafetyIncident |