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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Growth Flywheel |  Growth Funnel Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. | When many visitors or users drop off along the way, the reason behind the number often stays hidden. Funnel Analysis exposes these transitions and makes visible exactly where the path collapses. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 5-20 min | 60-120 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog | Funnel report, Drop-off analysis, Optimization hypotheses |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationEffortRisk | GrowthRetentionConversion | AnalyticsConversionGrowth |