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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 5-20 min | 2-4 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationEffortRisk | Root causeSafetyIncident | RiskRoot causeSafety |