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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-6 h | 1-3 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | FlowMeasurementConstraints | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |