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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile WSJF |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When many tasks compete for the same capacity, it orders work by economic impact. It makes time lost, benefit, and effort comparable together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-10 | 1-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Ranked Backlog, Cost-of-Delay Assumptions | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanEconomicsSequencePrioritization | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |