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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Visual Management |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | With high tempo and many parallel topics, the method makes status, deviations, and priorities visible at a glance. It reduces search effort and prevents what matters from getting lost in daily work. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Ongoing | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 1-20 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Visual Board, Status Indicators, Exception Cues | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingFlowDelivery | SignalsOperationsVisual management | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |