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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 5-20 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 3-20 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | EstimationEffortRisk | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |