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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Theory of Constraints |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a system that does not get faster despite effort, the method directs attention to the bottleneck. It concentrates improvement on the point that actually limits throughput. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-4 h Analyse, laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Constraint Map, Improvement Plan, Flow Metrics |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | FlowMeasurementConstraints | ForecastingFlowDelivery | OperationsConstraintsFlowImprovement |