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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 1-8 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | FlowMeasurementConstraints | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow |