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| Criterion |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 4-10 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | FailureResilienceRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |