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| Criterion |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | FailureResilienceRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow |