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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
A paper-based illustration representing Pirate Metrics (AARRR) with its core stages and visible working result.
Growth
Pirate Metrics AARRR
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.For products with complex usage paths, overall growth alone is too coarse to reveal bottlenecks. Pirate Metrics breaks the relationship with the product into consecutive stages and shows where the funnel actually leaks.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
5-20 min1-2 h Setup, laufend45-60 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
3-202-82-81-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAARRR funnel, Metric baseline, Experiment backlogAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
GrowthMetricsExperiments
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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