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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Growth Flywheel |  Growth North Star Metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. | When product teams track many metrics, the view of the actual customer outcome easily gets lost. A North Star Metric bundles growth, usage, and value contribution into one signal that makes the system's direction visible. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 15-45 min | 60-120 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog | North Star metric, Input metric tree, Measurement cadence |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | GrowthRetentionConversion | GrowthMetricsAlignmentRetention |