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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-9 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationEffortAgile |