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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-4 h | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationForecastingFlow |