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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration for Flywheel.
Growth
Flywheel
Paper illustration of Hooked Model with its method-specific working model.
Growth
Hooked Model
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth.The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighMediumMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min30-90 min Setup, danach laufend60-120 minMultiple workshops over several weeks
Participantsdifferent
3-201-83-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsForecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationFlywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment BacklogHooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics check
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
ForecastingFlowDelivery
GrowthRetentionConversion
GrowthBehaviorRetention
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