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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-6 h | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | RiskRoot causeSafety | EstimationForecastingFlow |